Markets
On-chain data shows long-term holder supply tightening into the autumn
Coins that have not moved in more than a year are near a record share of circulating supply, though the metric is a poor timing tool.
The share of bitcoin that has not moved in at least twelve months is sitting close to its highest level on record, according to our analysis of unspent output age bands.
Rising dormancy is usually read as accumulation. The reading deserves caveats: coins held in pooled custody move only when the custodian rebalances, so the growth of regulated funds mechanically inflates the dormant share without telling us anything about holder conviction.
Adjusting for known custodial clusters narrows the increase but does not erase it. Self-custodied supply in the one-to-three-year band has grown steadily, which is harder to explain as an accounting artefact.
What the series does not do is predict returns. Dormancy has been elevated during both advances and prolonged drawdowns, and the same reading has preceded moves in both directions.
Its practical use is as a supply-side constraint. A tighter free float means a given amount of buying pressure moves price further, which is consistent with the sharper intraday ranges desks have reported since spring.
Our methodology, including cluster exclusions, is published alongside the underlying series so readers can reproduce the calculation.
Disclosure: BitcoinsInvestments.com publishes news and analysis only. Nothing in this article is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.